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GOOD MORNING NOVEMBER 21, 2014






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Co-Ag Farm

Recently there have been many questions about wether or not an HTA contract is feasible right now....so let's find out.
Starting today, I sold 1 (5000bu) September 2014 Chicago (ZWU14) futures contract at 6.14, cash today was at 6.85.  That gives me a starting basis point of +71.  Today's nearby basis is +1.18.  If the Septemeber basis runs to anything close to that number it will be great, and will add to what would have been a 6.85 cash sale.   However, if the basis goes the other way it will be taking away from what would have been a 6.85 cash sale, and if it goes negative it will really hurt!

I'll also do the same with a December 2014 Chicago contract (ZWZ14) sold at 6.29, cash at 6.95 with a +66 starting basis to see is the later months fare any better or turn out worse. 

*UPDATE*
Today I locked the basis on the DEC HTA contract at 1.53 positive basis, giving me a cash price of 7.82 far surpassing what I could have sold the cash for when I started the hedge.  So in this case, yes the HTA contract worked again, even while starting at a positive basis.  Would I do another today?  No.  Today's basis levels are much to high in my opinion with much more downside risk than upside potential. 


 I'll update weekly to track how this HTA contract is working out.

Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more.
 


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  546'2 @W4Z Chart
 December  546'2 @W4Z Chart
 January  552'6 @W5H Chart
 February  552'6 @W5H Chart
 March  560'0 @W5K Chart
 April  560'0 @W5K Chart
 August  575'6 @W5U Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  604'0s @KW4Z Chart
 December  604'0s @KW4Z Chart
 January  607'0s @KW5H Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  583'4 @MW4Z Chart
 December  583'4 @MW4Z Chart
 January  592'0 @MW5H Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  NONE Chart
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  NONE Chart

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  NONE Chart

CANOLA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 November  NONE Chart
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart

Price as of 11/21/14 01:40PM CST.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$.038 per bu   $1.30 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+20, -35c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+0c, -4c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only).  Extra freight @ Chewelah $8/tn, K Falls $10/tn


Canola price is FOB Co-Ag elevator.

 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
C4Z 370'4 -2'6
S5F 1036'4 16'0
W4Z 548'0 0'6
O4Z 346'4 -0'6
Stocks
MSFT 47.6600 -1.0400
WMT 84.8000 0.2200
XOM 96.410000 0.590000
TWX 80.1600 -0.4300



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Our Market Comments
Wheat futures currently up 5. Argentine government did release some data on the current
harvest and the main thing on it was protein and test weight
levels are running below normal, we have seen several
comments stating the milling quality is very poor.US export sales came in at 361k mt vs trade guess of 300-500k
mt last week was 417k mt and last year 618k mt.


 

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 547'0 553'6 540'6 546'2 -1'0 547'2 01:30P Chart for @W4Z Options for @W4Z
Mar 15 552'4 560'0 547'4 552'6 0'2 552'4 01:30P Chart for @W5H Options for @W5H
May 15 558'0 566'2 554'2 560'0 0'6 559'2 01:30P Chart for @W5K Options for @W5K
Jul 15 564'4 571'0 559'0 566'4 2'0 564'4 01:30P Chart for @W5N Options for @W5N
Sep 15 573'2 579'0 567'4 575'6 2'4 573'2 01:15P Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 584'4 590'6 579'6 586'6 1'6 585'0 01:30P Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 596'0 10'6 593'4s 01:15P Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
May 16 586'0 0'6 596'6s 01:30P Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 581'0 590'6 580'6 580'6 0'4 590'2s 01:30P Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 597'2 0'4 597'2s 01:30P Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 599'0 0'4 605'2s 01:30P Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 607'6 0'4 607'6s 01:30P Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 600'0 0'4 609'0s 01:30P Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 606'6 0'4 606'6s 01:30P Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 601'6 608'2 598'2 604'4 2'2 602'2 01:30P Chart for @KW4Z Options for @KW4Z
Mar 15 606'0 612'0 601'4 607'0 0'6 606'2 01:30P Chart for @KW5H Options for @KW5H
May 15 607'4 614'4 604'6 609'6 1'0 608'6 01:15P Chart for @KW5K Options for @KW5K
Jul 15 609'2 614'0 604'6 608'4 -1'0 609'4 01:30P Chart for @KW5N Options for @KW5N
Sep 15 620'4 624'0 616'0 619'0 -1'4 620'4 01:15P Chart for @KW5U Options for @KW5U
Dec 15 639'4 639'4 633'6 634'2 -1'2 635'4 01:15P Chart for @KW5Z Options for @KW5Z
Mar 16 645'0 645'0 645'0 645'0 -1'0 642'2s 01:30P Chart for @KW6H Options for @KW6H
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 582'4 589'4 580'0 583'4 -1'0 584'4 01:30P Chart for @MW4Z Options for @MW4Z
Mar 15 590'0 597'6 586'6 592'0 0'4 591'4 01:30P Chart for @MW5H Options for @MW5H
May 15 598'6 605'2 598'2 601'2 1'2 600'0 01:30P Chart for @MW5K Options for @MW5K
Jul 15 607'6 613'4 605'0 609'2 1'4 607'6 01:30P Chart for @MW5N Options for @MW5N
Sep 15 615'6 620'6 612'4 617'2 1'4 615'6 01:30P Chart for @MW5U Options for @MW5U
Dec 15 629'4 635'0 629'4 631'2 1'4 629'6 01:30P Chart for @MW5Z Options for @MW5Z
Mar 16 635'0 635'0 635'0 635'0 12'0 639'6s 01:29P Chart for @MW6H Options for @MW6H
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 372'6 381'4 369'6 370'4 -2'6 373'2 01:30P Chart for @C4Z Options for @C4Z
Mar 15 385'2 394'2 382'6 383'4 -2'6 386'2 01:15P Chart for @C5H Options for @C5H
May 15 394'0 403'0 391'4 392'4 -2'4 395'0 01:30P Chart for @C5K Options for @C5K
Jul 15 401'0 410'0 399'0 399'6 -2'4 402'2 01:30P Chart for @C5N Options for @C5N
Sep 15 407'0 415'4 405'2 405'2 -3'2 408'4 01:30P Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 415'4 423'4 413'2 413'2 -3'0 416'2 01:30P Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 422'4 431'0 421'4 421'6 -2'2 424'0 01:30P Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Jan 15 1020'4 1040'0 1013'4 1038'0 17'4 1020'4 01:30P Chart for @S5F Options for @S5F
Mar 15 1028'0 1047'2 1021'0 1045'2 17'2 1028'0 01:30P Chart for @S5H Options for @S5H
May 15 1034'4 1053'0 1028'0 1051'2 16'6 1034'4 01:30P Chart for @S5K Options for @S5K
Jul 15 1039'2 1058'0 1032'4 1055'2 16'0 1039'2 01:30P Chart for @S5N Options for @S5N
Aug 15 1038'2 1056'0 1037'2 1053'4 14'0 1039'4 01:15P Chart for @S5Q Options for @S5Q
Sep 15 1018'0 1034'4 1018'0 1030'4 11'6 1018'6 01:30P Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 1003'6 1019'4 997'4 1016'4 12'0 1004'4 01:30P Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 170.250 171.250 169.800 171.175 0.925 170.900 01:30P Chart for @LE4Z Options for @LE4Z
Feb 15 171.775 172.650 171.300 172.475 0.650 172.150 01:30P Chart for @LE5G Options for @LE5G
Apr 15 170.300 171.100 169.800 170.550 0.250 170.425 01:30P Chart for @LE5J Options for @LE5J
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Dec 14 87.720 88.480 87.505 88.380 0.713 87.667 01:30P Chart for @DX4Z Options for @DX4Z
Mar 15 87.875 88.660 87.700 88.580 0.725 87.855 01:29P Chart for @DX5H Options for @DX5H
Jun 15 87.970 88.800 87.965 88.800 0.755 88.045 01:29P Chart for @DX5M Options for @DX5M
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

DTN Ag Headline News
Immigration Order Shortfalls
DTN Distillers Grain Weekly Update
View From the Cab
Vilsack: Exec Order Creates Stability
The Need for Speed
The Market's Fine Print
Ag Runoff Targeted
China May Import More Non-GMO Beans
Rookies at Risk - 2

Headline News
Obama Reveals Immigration Plan 11/21 06:23
China Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates 11/21 06:30
Kerry to Meet UK,French Diplomats 11/21 06:19
US, Turkey Still Not In Sync on Syria 11/21 06:26
ECB Head Willing to Step Up Stimulus 11/21 06:29
Dems Preparing for Clinton Campaign 11/21 06:22
Japan Lower House Dissolved for Vote 11/21 06:25
US Stocks Jump on China Rate Cut 11/21 11:50

Local Forecast
Rosalia, WA
Chg Zip:

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Tuesday
High: 39°F
Low: 30°F
Precip: 73%
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Precip: 80%
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Precip: 80%
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Precip: 54%
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Rosalia, WA
Chg Zip Code: 
 
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