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GOOD AFTERNOON
 February 08, 2016








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Co-Ag Home Stored Bushel Protein Premiums

 

 
 



 



Co-Ag Farm

10/22/2015
Well it’s been over a month since my last report, but it could have been yesterday with how much the market has moved since then. We continue to be stuck in a range of $5.50 and $5.80 cash, with DEC15 futures struggling to get over the $5.30 mark and dropping all the way down to $4.80. From a fundamental stand point even though it has been a rough start to the 2016 crop year here in the PNW the Midwest and the Black Sea region have gotten good and timely rains. It seems the cold has come to Russia sooner than hoped and there estimating that a third of the winter wheat crop is very susceptible to winterkill and made the need for good spring rains even more important. But with the large glut of wheat stocks on hand in the world the trade does not seem to concerned with these weather events yet, it will probably take till spring time till the market takes any weather seriously. US exports also continue to be dreadfully low and slow, even though we are getting more competitive in the world market we are struggling to keep up with our projections. Now taking the focus of the world wheat picture and looking harder at the SWW market, Australia has about month till the first combines will start up and get there SWW harvest under way. They have taken the brunt of the very strong El Nino heading our way and there is an overall consensus “besides the USDA” that there will be a considerable drop in production and average estimates are at 21-24MMT. What I am looking for is anything at 20 or below, if this mark is reached it should give a nice little bounce in the PNW SWW market, not a dollar or two improvement but significant. With this all being said, and with the technical side being short once again and in need some sort of rally, for nearby pricing I would not be shocked to see some movement right before the Australian harvest. This is the time when I would be looking at letting some grain go, either in the nearby month or further out. The market is to placid right now, there is no news to push it really one way or another, and as long as the corn boys can keep their act  together and not drive this thing into the ground there should be a couple selling opportunities.
PSA Announcement
I know we still are battling with marketing the 2015 crop but please keep an eye out on both cash and HTA opportunities for NC 2106. With how this fall planting has been going and with El Nino still scheduled to hit this area and make things 55% drier than normal taking risk off the table at profitable levels is essential. New Crop cash has been between $5.90 and $6.15 August DLVD for the past few weeks, and if we see a futures rally take advantage and lock that price in only if its 5,000BU. Yes, I know that things could change and that might be a terrible trade next year, but given the landscape at the current moment that $6.15 trade could be the best one to.

Price Points Futures
MAR2016-$5.48+
Harvest-May2016-$5.80+

Nearby Cash
$5.80

 
Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more and see how I am doing.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  460'0 @W6H Chart
 March  464'2 @W6K Chart
 April  464'2 @W6K Chart
 May  469'2 @W6N Chart
 June  469'2 @W6N Chart
 August  478'2 @W6U Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  445'4 @KW6H Chart
 March  455'2 @KW6K Chart
 April  455'2 @KW6K Chart
 May  465'0 @KW6N Chart
 August  478'4 @KW6U Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  486'6 @MW6H Chart
 March  492'2 @MW6K Chart
 April  492'2 @MW6K Chart
 May  500'0 @MW6N Chart
 August  510'2 @MW6U Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  NONE Chart
 March  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  NONE Chart

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 February  NONE Chart

Price as of 02/09/16 05:38AM CST.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$0.0 per bu   $0.0 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+4, -8c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+3c, -6c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only).  Extra freight @ Chewelah $8/tn, K Falls $10/tn


Canola price is FOB Co-Ag elevator.

 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
@C6H 360'6 -1'4
@S6H 863'2 0'6
@W6H 459'6 1'2
@O6H 199'0 0'0
Stocks
MSFT 49.4100 -0.7500
WMT 66.900000 -0.100000
XOM 80.430000 0.350000
TWX 67.300000 -1.860000



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Our Market Comments
Futures closed down 8.  Wheat takes a negative turn "technically" and many inside the trade believe we could soon be posting another leg-lower. It's tough to argue against the bears when we're already staring at 40 year lows in exports and the USDA looks as if it will soon be forced to make another reduction to their demand balance sheet. This ultimately means a U.S. ending stock number north of 950 million is now a very real possibility.

Pea & Lentil bids :   All prices are now basis 2015 crop.  New crop offers are being accepted and encouraged

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 16 458'6 460'0 458'2 460'0 1'4 458'4 05:27A Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
May 16 463'0 464'2 462'6 464'2 1'2 463'0 05:27A Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 468'2 469'4 467'4 469'2 1'0 468'2 05:27A Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 477'6 478'2 477'2 478'2 1'2 477'0 05:27A Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 492'0 492'2 491'4 491'6 0'6 491'0 05:27A Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 508'6 508'6 502'0 502'2 -7'4 501'6s 05:27A Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 514'2 514'2 510'0 510'0 -7'6 509'4s 05:27A Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 518'0 518'0 513'0 518'0 0'0 518'4s 05:27A Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 528'0 529'2 525'0 529'2 0'6 529'6s 02/08 Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 540'0 540'0 538'0 539'0 -1'4 539'0s 05:26A Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 557'0 -1'4 543'0s 02/08 Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 543'0 -1'4 543'0s 02/08 Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 528'0 0'4 528'0s 02/08 Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 16 445'4 446'2 443'6 445'4 0'0 445'4 05:27A Chart for @KW6H Options for @KW6H
May 16 455'4 456'0 454'2 455'2 -0'2 455'4 05:27A Chart for @KW6K Options for @KW6K
Jul 16 465'0 465'2 463'6 465'0 -0'2 465'2 05:27A Chart for @KW6N Options for @KW6N
Sep 16 477'6 478'4 477'6 478'4 -0'6 479'2 05:27A Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 498'6 499'0 498'4 498'4 -1'0 499'4 05:27A Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
Mar 17 520'4 520'4 512'2 512'6 -8'0 513'0s 05:27A Chart for @KW7H Options for @KW7H
May 17 525'2 525'2 521'2 521'2 -8'0 521'4s 05:27A Chart for @KW7K Options for @KW7K
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 16 486'0 487'0 486'0 486'6 0'4 486'2 05:27A Chart for @MW6H Options for @MW6H
May 16 493'0 493'0 491'6 492'2 0'2 492'0 05:27A Chart for @MW6K Options for @MW6K
Jul 16 500'0 500'0 500'0 500'0 0'0 500'0 05:27A Chart for @MW6N Options for @MW6N
Sep 16 510'2 510'2 510'2 510'2 0'0 510'2 05:27A Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 529'4 531'6 525'4 525'6 -4'0 526'0s 05:27A Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
Mar 17 545'2 545'2 541'0 541'2 -4'2 541'2s 05:27A Chart for @MW7H Options for @MW7H
May 17 552'0 552'0 550'2 550'2 -4'4 550'4s 05:27A Chart for @MW7K Options for @MW7K
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 16 362'2 362'6 360'4 360'6 -1'4 362'2 05:27A Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
May 16 366'6 367'2 365'0 365'2 -1'6 367'0 05:27A Chart for @C6K Options for @C6K
Jul 16 372'2 372'2 370'2 370'2 -2'0 372'2 05:27A Chart for @C6N Options for @C6N
Sep 16 377'4 377'6 375'6 375'6 -1'6 377'4 05:27A Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 385'0 385'4 383'6 383'6 -1'6 385'4 05:27A Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 393'4 393'4 393'2 393'2 -1'2 394'4 05:26A Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
May 17 399'4 399'4 399'0 399'0 -1'2 400'2 05:26A Chart for @C7K Options for @C7K
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Mar 16 862'6 864'4 862'4 863'2 0'6 862'4 05:26A Chart for @S6H Options for @S6H
May 16 866'6 868'4 866'4 867'2 0'6 866'4 05:26A Chart for @S6K Options for @S6K
Jul 16 872'6 874'2 872'2 873'0 0'4 872'4 05:26A Chart for @S6N Options for @S6N
Aug 16 874'6 875'6 874'6 875'4 1'0 874'4 05:26A Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
Sep 16 875'0 876'2 875'0 875'0 0'4 874'4 05:26A Chart for @S6U Options for @S6U
Nov 16 877'2 879'2 877'2 878'2 1'0 877'2 05:26A Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
Jan 17 882'6 884'4 882'6 884'4 2'4 882'0 05:26A Chart for @S7F Options for @S7F
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Feb 16 134.825 134.825 133.050 133.050 - 3.000 133.050s 02/08 Chart for @LE6G Options for @LE6G
Apr 16 133.000 133.100 131.400 131.400 - 3.000 131.400s 02/08 Chart for @LE6J Options for @LE6J
Jun 16 122.800 122.850 121.050 121.050 - 3.000 121.050s 02/08 Chart for @LE6M Options for @LE6M
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

DTN Ag Headline News
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USDA Reports Preview
Argentina Crop Outlook - 1
Investors Still Fans of Farmland
Biotech Regs Proposed
Woodbury: Family Business Matters
Obama Calls for $10 Oil Tax
Rethink Corn Economics
Banking on Ag Research

Headline News
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Iran Awards Medals to Nuke Team 02/08 06:24
Saudi Arabia Shoots Down Yemen Missile 02/08 06:27
Stocks Fall Sharply 02/08 16:40

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Rosalia, WA
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Rosalia, WA
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