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GOOD AFTERNOON
JULY 25, 2016 


 

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Co-Ag Farm

10/22/2015
Well it’s been over a month since my last report, but it could have been yesterday with how much the market has moved since then. We continue to be stuck in a range of $5.50 and $5.80 cash, with DEC15 futures struggling to get over the $5.30 mark and dropping all the way down to $4.80. From a fundamental stand point even though it has been a rough start to the 2016 crop year here in the PNW the Midwest and the Black Sea region have gotten good and timely rains. It seems the cold has come to Russia sooner than hoped and there estimating that a third of the winter wheat crop is very susceptible to winterkill and made the need for good spring rains even more important. But with the large glut of wheat stocks on hand in the world the trade does not seem to concerned with these weather events yet, it will probably take till spring time till the market takes any weather seriously. US exports also continue to be dreadfully low and slow, even though we are getting more competitive in the world market we are struggling to keep up with our projections. Now taking the focus of the world wheat picture and looking harder at the SWW market, Australia has about month till the first combines will start up and get there SWW harvest under way. They have taken the brunt of the very strong El Nino heading our way and there is an overall consensus “besides the USDA” that there will be a considerable drop in production and average estimates are at 21-24MMT. What I am looking for is anything at 20 or below, if this mark is reached it should give a nice little bounce in the PNW SWW market, not a dollar or two improvement but significant. With this all being said, and with the technical side being short once again and in need some sort of rally, for nearby pricing I would not be shocked to see some movement right before the Australian harvest. This is the time when I would be looking at letting some grain go, either in the nearby month or further out. The market is to placid right now, there is no news to push it really one way or another, and as long as the corn boys can keep their act  together and not drive this thing into the ground there should be a couple selling opportunities.
PSA Announcement
I know we still are battling with marketing the 2015 crop but please keep an eye out on both cash and HTA opportunities for NC 2106. With how this fall planting has been going and with El Nino still scheduled to hit this area and make things 55% drier than normal taking risk off the table at profitable levels is essential. New Crop cash has been between $5.90 and $6.15 August DLVD for the past few weeks, and if we see a futures rally take advantage and lock that price in only if its 5,000BU. Yes, I know that things could change and that might be a terrible trade next year, but given the landscape at the current moment that $6.15 trade could be the best one to.

Price Points Futures
MAR2016-$5.48+
Harvest-May2016-$5.80+

Nearby Cash
$5.80

 
Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more and see how I am doing.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  427'6 @W6U Chart
 August  427'6 @W6U Chart
 September  427'6 @W6U Chart
 October  454'6 @W6Z Chart
 November  454'6 @W6Z Chart
 December  454'6 @W6Z Chart
 January  482'0 @W7H Chart
 February  482'0 @W7H Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  422'2 @KW6U Chart
 August  422'2 @KW6U Chart
 September  422'2 @KW6U Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  496'0 @MW6U Chart
 August  496'0 @MW6U Chart
 September  496'0 @MW6U Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart
 December  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
There are currently no bids for GREEN PEAS at this location.

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 July  NONE Chart

Price as of 07/26/16 05:13AM CDT.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$0.0 per bu   $0.0 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+4, -8c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+3c, -6c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only). 




 


My Market Watch
Click Here to Customize
Commodities
@C6U 334'6 0'0
@S6Q 994'0 10'2
@W6U 427'6 -1'2
@O6U 198'2 -6'0
Stocks
MSFT 56.7300 0.1600
WMT 73.750000 0.200000
XOM 92.200000 -1.810000
TWX 78.500000 0.140000



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Our Market Comments
Futures are currently up 5.  Wheat bulls are keeping a close eye on prices in Paris, hoping the recent bounce higher will prompt some bears in the U.S. market to rethink their aggressive short position. There's continued debate about the size of the French wheat crop and perhaps more instantly the overall size of the entire European wheat crop.

Pea & Lentil bids :   All prices are now basis 2015 crop.  New crop offers are being accepted and encouraged.

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 427'4 429'2 424'4 427'6 -1'2 429'0 05:02A Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 454'2 456'2 452'0 454'6 -1'4 456'2 05:02A Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 480'4 482'6 479'0 482'0 -1'4 483'4 05:02A Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 495'0 495'0 493'4 493'4 -2'2 495'6 05:02A Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 499'0 501'6 498'4 501'6 -1'0 502'6 05:02A Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 506'4 514'6 505'0 514'6 8'0 514'4s 05:02A Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 525'0 533'2 525'0 532'6 9'0 532'6s 05:02A Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 530'0 9'2 546'2s 05:02A Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 549'4 9'2 549'4s 07/25 Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 539'0 541'4 539'0 541'4 0'6 541'2s 05:01A Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
Sep 18 541'2 0'6 541'2s 07/25 Chart for @W8U Options for @W8U
Dec 18 551'2 9'6 551'2s 07/25 Chart for @W8Z Options for @W8Z
Mar 19 551'2 9'6 551'2s 07/25 Chart for @W9H Options for @W9H
May 19 551'2 9'6 551'2s 07/25 Chart for @W9K Options for @W9K
Jul 19 551'2 9'6 551'2s 07/25 Chart for @W9N Options for @W9N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 422'0 423'2 418'4 422'2 -1'0 423'2 05:02A Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 449'0 449'0 444'6 449'0 -0'4 449'4 05:02A Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
Mar 17 466'2 466'2 465'0 465'2 -1'2 466'4 05:02A Chart for @KW7H Options for @KW7H
May 17 476'0 476'4 476'0 476'4 -1'0 477'4 05:02A Chart for @KW7K Options for @KW7K
Jul 17 485'0 487'0 482'0 487'0 -0'2 487'2 05:02A Chart for @KW7N Options for @KW7N
Sep 17 500'0 501'2 496'6 501'2 4'2 502'4s 05:01A Chart for @KW7U Options for @KW7U
Dec 17 515'0 3'4 521'4s 05:01A Chart for @KW7Z Options for @KW7Z
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 496'0 496'0 493'6 496'0 -1'0 497'0 05:01A Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 510'6 511'0 510'2 510'2 -2'6 513'0 05:00A Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
Mar 17 527'6 527'6 526'4 526'4 -2'4 529'0 05:02A Chart for @MW7H Options for @MW7H
May 17 541'6 541'6 537'4 538'0 2'0 538'6s 05:00A Chart for @MW7K Options for @MW7K
Jul 17 549'0 550'2 545'0 549'0 2'2 548'4s 05:00A Chart for @MW7N Options for @MW7N
Sep 17 558'0 560'0 554'2 554'2 1'4 557'4s 05:00A Chart for @MW7U Options for @MW7U
Dec 17 575'0 575'0 572'0 572'0 2'0 573'6s 05:00A Chart for @MW7Z Options for @MW7Z
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 16 333'4 335'0 331'4 334'6 0'0 334'6 05:02A Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 340'2 341'6 337'6 341'4 0'2 341'2 05:02A Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
Mar 17 350'0 351'2 347'6 351'0 0'0 351'0 05:02A Chart for @C7H Options for @C7H
May 17 356'0 356'2 354'2 356'2 -0'4 356'6 05:02A Chart for @C7K Options for @C7K
Jul 17 361'0 362'6 359'2 362'6 0'6 362'0 05:02A Chart for @C7N Options for @C7N
Sep 17 365'0 366'6 364'4 366'6 0'6 366'0 05:02A Chart for @C7U Options for @C7U
Dec 17 371'0 373'4 370'0 373'4 1'6 371'6 05:02A Chart for @C7Z Options for @C7Z
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 984'0 994'0 980'4 994'0 10'2 983'6 05:02A Chart for @S6Q Options for @S6Q
Sep 16 977'2 986'2 974'0 986'2 9'4 976'6 05:02A Chart for @S6U Options for @S6U
Nov 16 966'0 975'0 963'0 974'4 8'2 966'2 05:02A Chart for @S6X Options for @S6X
Jan 17 966'2 975'4 963'6 974'0 7'0 967'0 05:02A Chart for @S7F Options for @S7F
Mar 17 955'0 967'2 952'4 963'6 9'0 954'6 05:02A Chart for @S7H Options for @S7H
May 17 948'2 965'0 947'6 961'2 11'2 950'0 05:02A Chart for @S7K Options for @S7K
Jul 17 950'6 966'0 949'0 962'2 11'0 951'2 05:02A Chart for @S7N Options for @S7N
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 16 110.950 112.950 110.950 112.950 3.000 112.950s 07/25 Chart for @LE6Q Options for @LE6Q
Oct 16 109.150 111.075 109.100 111.075 3.000 111.075s 07/25 Chart for @LE6V Options for @LE6V
Dec 16 110.200 112.200 110.100 112.200 3.000 112.200s 07/25 Chart for @LE6Z Options for @LE6Z
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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Rosalia, WA
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Rosalia, WA
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