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GOOD AFTERNOON
 August, 03 2015






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Co-Ag Farm

7/17/15

Harvest is coming down the pipeline, cash prices are low, setting up for a below average crop in yield and quality, what is a guy to do? Well first thing is get the grain out of the fields and into the elevator or bins safely, because right now there’s nothing we can do about yields or quality. The market knows its harvest, and the world is flush with wheat so I don’t see a big rally anytime soon, especially with the U.S. export numbers struggling to even keep up with trade estimates.  We continue to be $30-$35 out of the world market, and the cash market will have to correct itself to make it competitive.  I have had many producers point to the PNW crop and the news out of the Midwest and ask why our issues are not being reflected in the market.  They are right, we are having production issues here and out east, but this time of the year exporters and importers are looking at the worldwide production, and with the US only being 7% of the world’s production and PNW only being 7% of that number it has not put a lot of scare into the market.  But we are the largest SWW producing area in the world, and with the weather issues that Australia is having we could see a good strong basis later in the year as importers come looking.  That all hinges on if we can get the US export market back in the ball park of being competitive again. So to be a broken record, I am going to suggest being patient, take risk of the table when prices are break-even or profitable, and don’t be hesitant to call Derek or I to ask questions, this is setting up for a tight year and chances of missing the boat are much higher than the past few years.  Another market to keep a closer eye this year is the corn, the rally we saw 2 weeks ago was mostly driven by the corn rally and we all know corn is king.

Cash price targets-$6.50-$6.80
Chicago Futures Target-$5.70-$6.00



UPDATE 7/1/2015
With the rally continuing yesterday I went ahead with another cash trade of 10,000BU @ 6.85. I also initated a HTA contract for 10,000BU, I locked in the futures @ 6.14 and with a basis of +.65 I am bullish the basis at least .30 by harvest. Full report and market thoughts sent for tommorow. You can see the detailed marketed breakdown on the Co-Ag Farm JV link on the left.

Update 6/29/2015
Withh the rally we had last week and this morning, I have went ahead and priced some NC bushels for August delivery. I made a trade on 6/25/2015 for 5,000BU @ 6.55 and then I pulled the trigger for 20,000BU @ 6.73. This puts me at 30% sold for 2015 crop with a average price at 6.795. With .40 over my break even I feel very confident with the past 2 trades and how the future outlook is heading. I will have a more detailed report later this week after the USDA releases there weekly numbers.


Take a look at the Co-Ag Farms J.V. Link to find out more.


Local Cash Bids
 
SOFT WHITE WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  501'4 @W5U Chart
 September  501'4 @W5U Chart
 October  508'4 @W5Z Chart
 January  515'4 @W6H Chart
 February  515'4 @W6H Chart

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  490'6 @KW5U Chart
 January  524'4 @KW6H Chart

DARK NORTHERN SPRING WHEAT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  516'6 @MW5U Chart
 September  534'0 @MW5Z Chart
 January  552'0 @MW6H Chart

BARLEY
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart
 September  NONE Chart
 January  NONE Chart
 February  NONE Chart

PARDINA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart

BREWER/MERRITT
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart

GREEN PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart

YELLOW PEAS
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart

CANOLA
  ROSALIA
Futures Price Futures Month Basis Cash Price
 August  NONE Chart
 September  NONE Chart

Price as of 08/04/15 08:49AM CDT.
Month Symbols
Click to view more Cash Bids

FSC & Discounts

Fuel Surcharges       
Wheat               Barley

 

$-.0117 per bu   $.-56 per ton

 


Protein Discount Scales
14.0% DNS (+15, -25c/.25% from 14% to 15.5%)
11.5% HRW (+0c, -4c/.5% from 11.5% to 13%)

Wheat & Barley prices are quoted FOB Portland. Elevator differentials and storage charges apply.

Pea, Lentil, and Oilseed prices are grower prices.  Receiving and storage charges apply.

*minus storage & $4.50 handle for net grower price(oats only).  Extra freight @ Chewelah $8/tn, K Falls $10/tn


Canola price is FOB Co-Ag elevator.

 


My Market Watch
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Commodities
@C5U 368'6 2'2
@S5Q 982'2 4'6
@W5U 501'6 2'6
@O5U 237'0 2'6
Stocks
MSFT 46.8900 0.0800
WMT 72.660000 0.480000
XOM 78.220000 0.160000
TWX 88.100000 0.320000



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Our Market Comments
Chicago futures closed up 1.  Wheat continues its aggressive downhill slide after tumbling by more than -$1.00 per bushel during the month of July. I would like to say U.S. wheat is finally starting to become more competitive in the global export space, but we are still NOT seeing the big buyers like Egypt, turn to the U.S. for supply. In fact it seems that countries like Canada, Australia, Russia, and even France are continuing to take market share away from U.S. exporters. Another problem for the bulls is the fact we are just not seeing a follow through with the global "production problem" headlines..

Futures
@W - WHEAT - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 499'0 506'6 498'6 501'4 2'4 499'0 08:37A Chart for @W5U Options for @W5U
Dec 15 505'4 513'2 505'0 508'4 3'4 505'0 08:37A Chart for @W5Z Options for @W5Z
Mar 16 513'4 520'0 513'4 515'4 3'4 512'0 08:37A Chart for @W6H Options for @W6H
May 16 518'4 522'0 518'4 520'4 4'2 516'2 08:37A Chart for @W6K Options for @W6K
Jul 16 524'6 527'2 522'2 523'6 5'0 518'6 08:37A Chart for @W6N Options for @W6N
Sep 16 528'2 1'0 527'4 08:37A Chart for @W6U Options for @W6U
Dec 16 541'0 544'2 541'0 544'2 7'0 537'2 08:37A Chart for @W6Z Options for @W6Z
Mar 17 541'0 546'4 541'0 546'4 -2'4 544'0s 08:37A Chart for @W7H Options for @W7H
May 17 605'0 -2'4 544'4s 08:37A Chart for @W7K Options for @W7K
Jul 17 537'0 -2'4 530'4s 08:37A Chart for @W7N Options for @W7N
Sep 17 523'6 -2'4 523'6s 08/03 Chart for @W7U Options for @W7U
Dec 17 540'4 -2'4 540'4s 08/03 Chart for @W7Z Options for @W7Z
Mar 18 540'4 -2'4 540'4s 08/03 Chart for @W8H Options for @W8H
May 18 540'4 -2'4 540'4s 08/03 Chart for @W8K Options for @W8K
Jul 18 540'4 -2'4 540'4s 08/03 Chart for @W8N Options for @W8N
@KW - HARD RED WINTER WHEAT - KCBT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 489'0 495'6 488'6 490'6 1'6 489'0 08:37A Chart for @KW5U Options for @KW5U
Dec 15 508'2 515'4 508'2 511'0 2'2 508'6 08:37A Chart for @KW5Z Options for @KW5Z
Mar 16 528'2 528'2 523'2 524'4 2'0 522'4 08:37A Chart for @KW6H Options for @KW6H
May 16 532'6 534'6 532'6 534'0 1'6 532'2 08:37A Chart for @KW6K Options for @KW6K
Jul 16 541'0 547'0 541'0 544'0 3'2 540'6 08:37A Chart for @KW6N Options for @KW6N
Sep 16 553'2 -2'6 553'4 08:37A Chart for @KW6U Options for @KW6U
Dec 16 574'0 574'0 574'0 574'0 4'4 569'4 08:37A Chart for @KW6Z Options for @KW6Z
@MW - HARD RED SPRING WHEAT - MGE
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 517'0 523'0 516'4 516'6 -0'2 517'0 08:37A Chart for @MW5U Options for @MW5U
Dec 15 534'0 540'2 534'0 534'0 -0'2 534'2 08:37A Chart for @MW5Z Options for @MW5Z
Mar 16 552'6 558'0 552'0 552'0 -0'2 552'2 08:37A Chart for @MW6H Options for @MW6H
May 16 566'4 566'4 564'0 564'0 0'4 563'4 08:37A Chart for @MW6K Options for @MW6K
Jul 16 576'2 576'2 568'4 573'4 -5'6 573'6s 08:37A Chart for @MW6N Options for @MW6N
Sep 16 579'0 584'0 579'0 581'0 -5'6 580'6s 08:37A Chart for @MW6U Options for @MW6U
Dec 16 595'0 595'0 595'0 595'0 -4'0 594'0s 08:37A Chart for @MW6Z Options for @MW6Z
@C - CORN - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 368'0 372'6 367'2 368'4 2'0 366'4 08:37A Chart for @C5U Options for @C5U
Dec 15 377'6 382'6 377'2 378'2 1'6 376'4 08:37A Chart for @C5Z Options for @C5Z
Mar 16 388'6 393'4 388'2 389'2 2'0 387'2 08:37A Chart for @C6H Options for @C6H
May 16 395'4 399'6 395'0 395'4 2'0 393'4 08:37A Chart for @C6K Options for @C6K
Jul 16 400'4 404'0 400'2 401'4 2'4 399'0 08:37A Chart for @C6N Options for @C6N
Sep 16 391'0 392'4 391'0 391'4 2'4 389'0 08:37A Chart for @C6U Options for @C6U
Dec 16 393'4 397'4 393'0 394'2 2'2 392'0 08:37A Chart for @C6Z Options for @C6Z
@S - SOYBEANS - CBOT
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 977'4 986'4 971'0 982'2 4'6 977'4 08:37A Chart for @S5Q Options for @S5Q
Sep 15 944'2 957'0 942'6 951'2 6'2 945'0 08:37A Chart for @S5U Options for @S5U
Nov 15 935'0 949'0 933'2 944'2 8'6 935'4 08:37A Chart for @S5X Options for @S5X
Jan 16 941'0 954'2 939'2 950'2 9'2 941'0 08:37A Chart for @S6F Options for @S6F
Mar 16 938'6 952'4 938'6 947'6 8'2 939'4 08:37A Chart for @S6H Options for @S6H
May 16 936'6 947'4 936'0 943'4 6'6 936'6 08:37A Chart for @S6K Options for @S6K
Jul 16 942'4 951'0 942'2 947'0 6'4 940'4 08:37A Chart for @S6N Options for @S6N
@LE - LIVE CATTLE - CME
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Aug 15 148.350 148.600 148.150 148.600 0.600 148.000 08:37A Chart for @LE5Q Options for @LE5Q
Oct 15 148.625 148.800 148.350 148.800 0.700 148.100 08:37A Chart for @LE5V Options for @LE5V
Dec 15 149.925 150.100 149.675 150.100 0.700 149.400 08:37A Chart for @LE5Z Options for @LE5Z
@DX - US DOLLAR INDEX - ICEFU
Month Open High Low Last Change Close Time More
Sep 15 97.610 97.745 97.310 97.470 -0.146 97.616 08:38A Chart for @DX5U Options for @DX5U
Dec 15 97.945 98.070 97.635 97.800 -0.141 97.941 08:38A Chart for @DX5Z Options for @DX5Z
Mar 16 98.210 98.210 98.080 98.080 -0.149 98.229 08:38A Chart for @DX6H Options for @DX6H
My Custom Markets
Symbol Open High Low Last Change Close Time More

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Rosalia, WA
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